We Didn’t See that Coming!
“Defectors often cause more difficulty than disinterested disbelievers.” Neal A. Maxwell
‘To struggle and to understand, never the last without the first…’ – George Mallory
“I Recall That Since The Beginning Of The Revolution, Some Of The Great People In This Regime…They Handed Their Own Children Over To The Firing Squad – This Is Incredible!” Hassan Abbasi
“An aircraft carrier that has at least 40 to 50 planes on it and 6,000 forces gathered within it was a serious threat for us in the past but now it is just a target and the threats have switched to opportunities,” Amirali Hajizadeh, head of the Guards’ aerospace division.
Slowly unfolding is a story of which not many are aware. Over the past ten years a number of high ranking political figures, military leaders and scientists from Iran have defected to the West. They often have shared damaging information on the present Iranian regime.
Messages from defectors from war torn countries can be misleading. The defectors are typically really afraid, therefore will share almost any significant information from their homelands in order to obtain asylum. This happens more than you might realize. They totally overestimate the importance of the information they possess and underestimate the fact that the Intelligence Community (IC) likely already knows what they are willing to declare. After all the IC is a professional organization with many resources at their disposal.
In addition, the defectors could very well be a plant. It is common practice in the Intelligence world to plant “trojan horses” in the midst of adversaries. Double agents are rampant. The IC is a complicated world, where lies are told on top of lies and in which it is difficult to distinguish between truth and falsehood.
This week we will look at a particular alleged defector. I am describing the defector as alleged because underground news sources are reporting the occurrence as factual. Mainstream media is remaining oddly silent and governments are mute on the matter. Actions speak louder than words. The actions of key players reveal to us that there is more than meets the eye concerning what goes on within the recesses of safe-houses and in the halls of oak paneled offices in Washington DC. Discussions are taking place which are bringing to light subjects no one has had a desire to mention before.
On April 23rd, a huge story went mostly unnoticed as former Iranian Brigadier General, Ali Nasiri from the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) allegedly defected to the United States through an embassy in the region. He was the commander of a Counter Intelligence Unit, “Hazrate Seyed al-Shohada,” within the IRGC. He had with him a treasure trove of documents related to Iranian military and intelligence plans. Nasiri is undoubtedly the most significant and highest ranking defector since General Alireza Asgari in March 2007. In an unusual step, the Iranian regime acknowledged his defection a few days later.
Was the defection of Brigadier General, Ali Nasiri a sudden walk-in? Or had he been supplying the US with Iranian secrets for some time? Was his defection planned in advance or was it an emergency decision? I have often been told that Western Intelligence services have excellent sources at very high levels of the Khamenei regime. Is Nasiri one of them?
Whatever is happening with Iran, this doesn’t appear to be standard “saber rattling.” A high-ranking Intelligence officer for Iran may have spilled the beans on something huge that has been planned, significant enough to put us in a wartime posture.
So far nobody has acknowledged that General Ali Nasiri has defected. How can we deduce that he has or has not defected and what would the implications of this be? Can he be trusted? Let’s look at a series of events which might clear up some words that are not being said.
The following events have been verified by multiple sources. These are indicators concerning Ali Nasiri’s possible defection. They reveal that something is going on beyond the open discussions.
It has been reported that General Nasiri had a heated argument with IRGC Intelligence Commander Hossein Taeb. After storming out of their April 11th meeting, General Nasiri was not seen again.
The Hezbollah-affiliated Al-Mayadin news agency posted the news of Nasiri’s disappearance with few additional details on its website on Saturday, April 13, but the item was removed half an hour later. Hezbollah is a proxie terrorist army for the IRGC.
Over the weekend, the White House announced it was sending an aircraft-carrier strike group and bombers to the Middle East in response to “troubling and escalatory indications and warnings” related to Iran. Based on what? Reports differed on the nature of the planned Iranian attacks. There were reports that Iranian officials gave a green light to its terrorist proxies to attack US military personnel in Iraq and Syria. Other reports said Iran planned to orchestrate drone attacks in the Red Sea and Persian Gulf. There also was news that Iran had moved short-range ballistic missiles by boat in waters off its shores.
Although European governments still oppose President Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA and new US sanctions against Iran, European corporations are honoring US sanctions. They have left Iran in droves, including Air France, British Airways, KLM, Total, Siemens, and Volkswagen. This is causing much consternation between these mega-corporations and the leaders of their countries. In a sense these corporations are putting the self interest of their companies and their stock-holders ahead of the national interests of their countries.
Iran issues ultimatums to the Europeans. This in itself is not a prodrome, but it indicates that the Europeans are working off a new set of rules. What is affecting the current EU leaders to reconsider their positions? They answered Iran’s threats with a rather bold response. “We reject any ultimatums and we will assess Iran’s compliance on the basis of Iran’s performance regarding its nuclear-related commitments.”
On Sunday, April 21, state Iranian media reported on the appointment of Brigadier General Fathullah Jomayri to the post of commander of the internal security unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which replaced Brigadier General Ali Nasiri. A source inside the regime told Iranian media members: “Following the leak of classified documents and information to Israel and the US regarding Iran’s nuclear program and secret missile bases, Mohammad Ali Jafari, commander in chief of the IRGC, under Khamenei’s order, dismissed Ali Nasiri, commander of the IRGC security. Apparently, though not admitting that Nasiri defected, it has been admitted that he leaked sensitive documents to the US and Israel.
Shortly after, Jafari replaced Nasiri with Jomayri. The Ayatollah Khamenei replaced General Jafari with a deputy commander of the Revolutionary Guards, Brig. Gen Hossein Salami, and elevated his rank to major general. General Salami takes over a 125,000-member branch of the Iranian military that has grown into a vast military-industrial complex since it was created by founders of the Islamic revolution that overthrew the shah 40 years ago.
Iran is desperately trying to reverse the effects of President Trump’s, so far, successful Iran policy, known as the “maximum-pressure strategy.” The Iranian government is getting desperate. The sanctions are working despite what so many popular pundits are saying. People are deeply afraid because the economy has gotten so bad. Iran’s economy is expected to shrink by 6 percent in 2019 after having shrunk 3.9 percent in 2018. Inflation could reach 50 percent this year.
Iran only has a few options at its disposal. They certainly do not want a war. Though they are great at saber rattling, they understand the implications of pushing too far. Their only hope is to try to drive a wedge between the US and its allies in Europe, China and Russia. The position of the US is not much more hopeful. When President Trump pulled the US from the JCPOA against the wishes of its allies, he put the world in a fragile state, one which in my estimation already existed, of a different kind, however the action put the US in a confrontation position. The basis of the withdrawal of the US is pretty solid. There has been so much wishful thinking in the diplomatic community when it comes to the JCPOA.
For instance, the inspection provisions of the JCPOA are very weak. Iran has violated them repeatedly by not permitting inspections of military sites. Iran also has refused to fully account for its past nuclear-weapons work. Israeli Intelligence discovered last year from a trove of Iranian documents (the “Iran nuclear archive”) the existence of a secret atomic warehouse in Tehran that may have contained 300 tons of equipment and 15 kilograms of radioactive material. Rouhani’s threats are therefore, absurd because he is threatening to withdraw from an ineffective nuclear agreement on which Iran is already cheating. The hopes of the diplomatic community may be bashed by this possible defection of Ali Nasiri.
It is my position that General Ali Nasiri did in fact defect, with plenty of top secret information. It was that same information that caused President Trump to re-direct an entire Carrier Strike Group from its maneuvers in the Mediterranean to the Gulf. It was also perhaps General Nasiri’s defection that caused IRGC Commanding General Mohammad Ali Jafari to replace General Ali Nasiri with a successor, seemingly out of the blue.
What is taking so long for the knowledge of the above described information to emerge into the public eye? The Intelligence Community (IC) is anal about ensuring that all information, especially from defectors is verified and then re-verified from multiple sources. Take the Weapons-of-Mass-Destruction in Iraq incident for example: The Intelligence Community works slowly and methodically while the rest of the world is moving at break-neck speed, often to its own destruction. That is why I like that quote by George Mallory at the top of this article: “To struggle and to understand, never the last without the first.”
If anyone doubts the seriousness of today’s subject at hand, take note that on Monday, May 13th, US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo cancelled his trip to Moscow where he was to discuss some serious on-going matters. He decided to go instead to Brussels to address the Iranian situation.
I realize that I may be sticking my head pretty far out to be chopped off from an analytical perspective, but there are so many indicators pointing to the fact that Ali Nasiri did in fact defect. He also demonstrated his good faith in his defection by producing some damning evidence that IRGC was about to release some of its proxie terror clients on either the US interests in the Middle East, or on the Strait of Hormuz in general, causing a literal tsunami of economic turmoil across the entire globe.
The fact that Nasiri did or did not defect is easy to prove. The Iranians, who are saying he is a good guy, just need to show him and put it all to bed. Of course, the US could present a photo of Nasiri shaking hands with President Trump as well, which would equally be proof of his whereabouts. The simple fact is that somebody knows where Nasiri is today and the truth will come out soon. The facts are that he had a fight with a very powerful individual within the IRGC; he is not in command of the IRGC Counter-intelligence Unit any longer; he has not been seen for a few weeks now and nobody is willing to speak of his whereabouts. The world is mobilizing on the basis of something out of the ordinary right now.
Truth still matters. It seems as if we are living in a post-truth age, however I think that is an incorrect assumption. The truth, as always is significant because the lives of millions of people are at stake. It is only the truth that will set all these people free. If the truth is not found out, it will allow men and women to continue to lurk in the shadows of half- truth’s and reality will no longer be a safe place to live.
Jesus said, “I am the way, the truth and the life and nobody comes to the Father except by me.” If what Jesus says is true, then we all have hope. There is a firm foundation upon which we can stand. There is in fact a solid reality in which we can hope. If what Jesus says is not true, then we are all doomed. There is no hope. Situations like the one in the Middle East today will continue to rise and the only truth will be that the man with the bigger gun is right… and everybody else is wrong.
Study and learn for yourself about what is true. Test the information sources you receive. Examine my analysis. Find out if they are accurate. Jesus also told us that we will know the truth and when we do, it will set us free. If we truly want to be a part of the solution to the world’s problems, we must become a people who are determined to be truthful in all we do. How do we do that? We ask for God’s help. We study. We think. We act.
I am an advocate of Christians getting involved somehow in public life. Participate in your local school boards, city councils, state and national governments. Enlist or take a commission in the military. Give yourself away for your community. These are noble pursuits for your life. I am beginning to believe that a serious part of our problem is that Christians have taken themselves out of the public sphere and those spaces are now being filled by a godless group who appears to feel more strongly about critical convictions than we do.
What is really going on in Venezuela?… https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-04-30/venezuela-guaido-uprising-is-not-a-coup
Quick Facts on the Venezuelan Humanitarian Crisis?… https://www.mercycorps.org/articles/venezuela-crisis-quick-facts
For your comments or questions about any of our digests please feel free to write to me at: firstname.lastname@example.org
In foreign language sources, all translations are mine. I accept responsibility for any mis-translations.
https://www.europe-israel.org/2019/04/le-general-iranien-nasiri-trahit-et-fuit-a-louest-avec-des-documents-sensibles/ French Language
http://www.newsru.co.il/mideast/24apr2019/iran304.html?rss Russian Language