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Someone’s got to die!

By May 17, 2019July 30th, 2019Iran, IRGC, Strait of Hormuz

One of the things that I recognized in the field of intelligence over the past 20 years is that eventually somebody has to die to get anybody to believe what you are telling them. I know that may sound crass, but it is just true.

The Intelligence world teeters on the blade of a two edged sword. If something happens such as 9/11, the intelligence world is castigated for not seeing it coming and immediately people who know absolutely nothing about collection, dissemination and analysis of Intelligence all of a sudden know everything there is to know about it. If someone in the intelligence community makes a prognostication or predicts a possible dangerous event and it doesn’t happen, then he is a dupe because he got it wrong.

This week there is so much rhetoric flying around about the intelligence gathered which indicated that the Iranians were planning something nefarious. The main stream media is scoffing at the Intelligence Community and ultimately President Trump because they dispatched the Carrier Strike Group USS Abraham Lincoln, a bomber task force and upgraded the readiness status in the Middle East to high alert. The rest of the world is laughing.

Why? Do they have access to more information that is better than the 16 (yes, I said 16) intelligence gathering agencies in the United States government. The United States spends a whopping $75 billion dollars on intelligence gathering. It is a huge industry. I am not implying that it is always right. We have seen some major debacles over the years that one would think the IC should have seen coming. My point is, I seldom find myself thinking I know better than that system. There will be much more unfolding over the next few weeks. I can guarantee that.

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