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A Swing and a Miss: 3 possible scenarios from the Iranian missile attacks

By January 8, 2020January 9th, 2020Iran, IRGC, Military

It was of great interest to me this morning to see all the different ways that the Iranian missile attack on the bases in Iraq have been explained.

Let me suggest a few ways that one might interpret what happened.

Facts as we know them:

The Iranian government began its campaign of retribution last night by firing 15 ballistic missiles at two US military bases outside Baghdad and one missile at a compound outside Irbil, Kurdistan. There were no reported US casualties, some facilities damaged, and a few Iraqi wounded.

Here are three potential scenarios as to why a nation can fire 15 high-explosive missiles and walk away with literally no pay-off to what was probably an expensive abnormal operation known as “Operation Martyr Soleimani.”

Scenario One:

Several in the mainstream media are suggesting that this a substantial probability. The Iranian government wants to retaliate to save face. Still, in the spirit of not wanting to escalate this any further, they chose to attack cheap targets that would not elicit a heavy-handed response from the United States. Their motivations could be mixed. They want to throw out an olive branch, or they are just not wanting to hurt any more people.

Scenario Two:

What happened is probably just the first of a series of attacks designed to create a sense of complacency by the US and to test its response. They are dipping their toe into the water, so to speak. Based on what they discover, they will plan their next attacks and act in response to what they have learned.

Scenario Three:

There is something in the USA called, “Defense Special Missile and Aerospace Center (DEFSMAC)” It is the world’s most sophisticated missile tracking system on the earth. It allows the US government within seconds to know when a missile has been fired anywhere on the earth. They can alert forward troops of missile firings within seconds of their launches, and that comes only after they have been able to read heat signatures of missiles being prepared to be launched.
The soldiers in Al-Asad and Al-Balad bases knew the missiles were being fired within seconds and had 5-10 minutes to get to their hardened shelters. Trust me when I say that these bases have been hardened and are well prepared for such attacks. The US has been occupying these bases for 16 years. Their shelters are as ready for an offensive attack as any bunkers in the world.

https://www.nsa.gov/Portals/70/documents/about/cryptologic-heritage/historical-figures-publications/publications/technology/DEFSMAC_Brochure.pdf?ver=2019-08-07-124409-883

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